A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
